The digital asset reached a near-record high of US$99,830 on Nov. 22 before falling more than 8% to US$91,377.32 on Nov. 26.
Reuters reported that Derive, a crypto trading platform, analyzed the call-put skew data and found a shift towards protective strategies. This suggests that investors are hedging against potential downside risks after the recent price drop.
However, Derive founder Nick Forster emphasized that such pullbacks are not uncommon in bull markets.
A significant amount of Bitcoin options, valued at US$11.8 billion, are set to expire on Dec. 27. This expiry event could trigger major price movements in either direction. Derive forecasts a 68% chance of Bitcoin experiencing a moderate swing by Dec. 27, with potential scenarios ranging from a 16% drop to US$81,493 to a 20% increase to US$115,579. Smaller possibilities exist for more dramatic price movements, both up and down.
Additionally, Derive data shows increased odds of Bitcoin reaching US$100,000 by Dec. 27, with a new 4% chance of surpassing US$150,000.
Long-term holders are contributing to the market dynamics, with _checkonchain.com analysis showing US$60 billion in supply distributed over the past 30 days. November alone accounts for 21% of this distribution — the heaviest profit-taking of the current market cycle.
The Bitcoin options market indicates increased caution, with traders preparing for potential price volatility in the coming weeks. Investors should closely monitor market sentiment and be prepared for significant price movements.
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